This isn’t something thy has already happened so don’t freak out, yet.
This video talks about something that’s very scary for the US, and something which would likely reduce us to a 3rd world country. China, Japan, Brazil and others looking to remove the dollar as main currency and move to using the Euro, Yuen or something similar. Has anyone else heard of this? Thought what it would mean for the US and the world?
Also this guy Escobar says 2020-2030 is when it will happen because it won’t happen overnight. I heard from someone else that mentioned this that it could happen overnight. Can’t wait to hear some responses.
@reinvented2012, Not really surprising, China is already the #1 World Power, though USA still pretends to be.
However, China and others (India, Brasil) are facing immense problems not known to the USA, and they are far more behind regarding lots of stuff, which they cannot solve so quickly. Actually I am thinking India is the one to be afraid of, where China made a quick start, India is taking it on slowly. But also India is facing problems not known to the West.
It will not happen so quickly. North America and Europe have been developing for many years to come to the point where they are right now. China and India only since the 1990’s. They have a long way to go. I doubt with the political regimes in these countries something will drastically change. There is too much inequality and they are burning their resources in a faster tempo we could imagine. Resources are limited in this world, we have been using most of them but there is not enough for everybody.
The Euro being the main currency? I doubt it. Furthermore there are too much interests that we do not know about for this to change quickly. It may happen in the future, but I do not believe it will happen any time soon.
Definitely not overnight, do you know the implications for the whole world economy when that would happen? China, India, Brasil are as dependent of Europe and North America as the other way round.
It will defenitly take a lot of time to happen. I don’t think the Chinese currency will become the #1 currency, as it is always possible that they have a revolution (their new leader is even worse in the freedom of speech issues then the last ones). The states are going to loose their status as most important economy, they are far to wasting on resources and are extremely in debt. Which big, stable other currency’s are left? Well, the Euro, that’s pretty much it. It is very stable, not very much in debt and the economy is working very good except for Greece, Italy and Spain.
@reinvented2012, It won’t be the Yuan any time soon because it’s a manipulated currency. The Euro is the obvious choice, although the EU is still reeling from the financial crisis, so that would happen very gradually.
It won’t send the US into becoming a “3rd world country” (an outdated term.) Lowering the use (and therefore value) of the US dollar worldwide will give us less buying power on the world market. Imports will be more expensive, and there will be even more pressure to exploit domestic energy resources like natural gas and coal. It would cause a mild recession.
On the flip side, our national debt will shrink since the value of what we owe will decrease. And our goods will be more attractive to other countries, which would boost exports. We’ve been purposely lowering the value of the dollar in the past couple decades to achieve exactly these results.
The growth in the emerging markets is tapering off. You can only grow at 20% a year for so long… China is flush with cash, but they’re still trying to catch up. They’re desperately in need of energy, water, and education. They’re a gargantuan economy, and are gradually lifting themselves out of poverty, but it will still be a while before the bulk of their citizens can participate in a 21st Century economy.
@filipek, Its good to hear it looks like this possible scenario is not going to happen soon. I think that the people here in the US that need to know whats going on in other countries do know whats going on in other countries. I sure don’t, and am sure much of the population here doesn’t.
I get that we are all dependent on each other but for the US to not be the main currency would mean drastic changes in this country. Its a shame that all countries cannot work together to give everyone the same standard of living.
@sandman, Well I like the positive outcome you think will come out of that. I dont think that the outcomes are as certain as you think though. I sure would hope that if it happens we would be able to be more independent and wouldn’t be out there policing the world anymore. Hopefully it would also result in us bringing jobs back to the US and not outsourcing everything to China and other countries. Also as you mentioned about getting energy/oil from within the US instead of the middle east, maybe we would start to actually make some headway within renewables.
The doom and gloom scenario mostly came from a guy I was talking with yesterday and that’s why I started looking into this. I had no idea China and these other countries were making these changes and didn’t know what the possible outcomes were. So again, glad to hear there is some positive outcomes that can arise.
The USA is already a 3rd world country. You’re flat broke, living on borrowed resources and nothing but borrowed resources. A veneer of wealth, where there really is none.
Can’t keep this up for too long, and I actually think I’ll celebrate the day the USA crumbles.
If Euro becomes the standard, that could be a disaster, because it’s very unstable. I really hope Euro won’t spread more than it already has. I’m not so sure about Yuen either, because we don’t know yet if those countries can keep up this pace.
International currencies are a bad idea, because the more countries you include the more you increase the risks and fuckups. It would be better if each country had their own currency, like it used to be.
Using currency as the standard is pretty stupid if you ask me. There’s gotta be something of actual value that we can use as a standard measure.
@manimal, well aside from the fact we are operating on borrowed money, we have been for some time. I know it cannot be sustained forever, but I think its terrible you want an entire country to crumble. What should happen is that all the world powers should be working together to solve these problems, because we all need each other in some way or another.
Thanks for your input.
@reinvented2012, A country is just a country, if it’s gone to hell it’s better to start over. People don’t need the country, but the country needs people. A crumbling country does not mean a crumbling community.
The world powers should work together? That’s not a very good idea, the only thing that’s maintaining what little liberty that is left these days is this division. If they all work together, it’ practically a world nation, and that means homogenisation of the systems, communities and PEOPLE. It means the end of liberty, the end of justice, the final nail in the coffin of democracy.
The problem with using something as a standard for valuation of currency is that it limits the amount of currency to the amount of the commodity. It makes it harder for governments to adjust cash supply and control interest rates to protect industries and economies. The reason the recent depression happened despite this control is that American banks are grossly unregulated and ended up taking huge risks with a lot of the money they were in control of. What America needs is a good stable banking system similar to one found in say… Canada. 5 major banks, many minor banks and credit unions. Very little actual competition and heavy regulation of interest rates by the government. For a country so deeply connected to the USA’s fortunes the Canadians maintained stable employment and recovered quickly from the recent economic depression. That is thanks to a money supply regulated by the government and not private interests and a stable, healthy banking industry.
@dkivioja, well your right we shouldnt have a central banking system. You mentioned that Canada is set up with 5 major banks, plus smaller ones and credit unions. Were the same, Wells Fargo, Chase, BOA etc and then all the smaller ones, so theres no difference there. The difference lies within who controls the money, and as you said ours is controlled by a private group (FED). One way or another things have to change.
@manimal, When the country crumbles, the people will suffer. The point is to try and reduce suffering. We need to find a way to pay back debt without destroying everything all at once. Clearly cutting back on military spending, unemployment costs, social security and medicare is where we have to focus our efforts since they combine for about 75% of our spending. Hoping with us being funded to January 15th we come to some agreement to fix the problem, but thats unlikely.
@reinvented2012, I’m not sure it would turn us more isolationist. I think in some cases it’s useful for us to be the global cops, but ideally we move with a UN consensus/coalition. The biggest shift I’m hoping for is for an era of diplomacy versus military intervention. Despite the impression the 24-hour news channels make, the world is becoming much more peaceful (ref: Steven Pinker…)
I think we’re stuck with outsourcing. It’s a global market now, so US companies will get raw materials where they’re cheapest and labor where it’s cheapest. I don’t see that rolling back anytime soon. The question is what do we have that we can export? Corn and wheat? IT? Financial services? Movies and entertainment? Military hardware?
There’s been a shift where laws favoring US companies used to ensure that jobs and capital and taxes flowed back to the US. But now US companies hire overseas, hoard cash overseas and evade taxes, so the companies are massively profitable, but there’s less and less benefit to this country in terms of jobs, investment, and tax revenue.
The reality is that fracking has opened up so much natural gas in the US that it’s almost free. Coal plants are coming off line, and fleet vehicles are switching from gasoline and diesel to CNG. That’s great news in some ways: much less air and groundwater pollution, less CO2. But it really diminishes incentives to make renewables work.
@sandman, I see fracking as a bad thing from the articles I have read about the devastation its caused to anyone within the areas where its taking place. Evidence of increased water pollution and farm land destruction has been showing up all over.
In regards to finding the cheapest labor and materials, I am all for limited government but at this time I think we might need more regulation for corporations. We need to bring the jobs back here, and force these companies to bare the burden of increased costs. There are likely many ways to get this done, but the simplest would be to create more legislation. It seems the more I read, the more I see personal liberties and freedoms taken away, while nothing seems to be done about these billion dollar companies that are forcing increased costs on to the consumers. I may have gone off topic some but these are important topics.
Now those ideas I proposed wouldnt solve our debt issue but they would sure be part of the solution, along with reduction in the 3 main categories I mentioned before (military, social security, unemployment costs and medicare)
“Using currency as the standard is pretty stupid if you ask me. There’s gotta be something of actual value that we can use as a standard measure. ”
There’s certainly plenty of precedent for that. Currency in many places for thousands of years was based on the commodity value of the coinage (gold, silver, copper.) In fact, the US just got off the “gold standard” recently. And of course all bartering systems are based on the value of the trade items.
I’m not an economist, but there are a couple of problems with basing trade and currency solely on commodity prices. Their actual value can fluctuate wildly (look at the gold market in the past couple years,) they favor some countries disproportionately, and long term investments are uncertain.
What we’ve come up with is to use currency whose value essentially represents the likelihood that you can trade that money in for something else somewhere else in a predictable way. In that sense, the US dollar is still a pretty good bet.
“The world powers should work together? That’s not a very good idea, the only thing that’s maintaining what little liberty that is left these days is this division.”
I understand your resistance to homogenization, but some good things have come from a more connected global community. For instance, there is almost no slavery anywhere in the world. Slavery used to be NORMAL, a legitimate way to do business, trade, work, run a company efficiency. Many companies and private businesses OWED people and they were treated as less than human. That is 99.9% abolished. The few places where there is slavery, it is generally illegal, underground, and universally condemned.
Infant mortality is down, life expectancy is up, vaccinations, oral rehydration therapy, cell phone banking, and anti-malarial efforts have made the world a much more livable place for billions.
Imperialism wrecked and exploited whole continents, but a more benevolent wave of trade between the haves and have-nots of this century is helping to lift people out of poverty, illiteracy, and disease.
The scrutiny and connectivity of the world under institutions like the UN makes it much more difficult to rape, exploit, and repress one’s own people. Not that it doesn’t happen, but now it is exposed, censured, and the world can stage interventions.
Connectedness doesn’t necessarily mean loss of individuality.
“I see fracking as a bad thing from the articles I have read about the devastation its caused to anyone within the areas where its taking place. Evidence of increased water pollution and farm land destruction has been showing up all over.”
I generally agree. It can be done semi-responsibly, but in some places it has been devastating to the water supply. I would love to see renewables taking a bigger slice of the pie, but the reality is that this glut of natural gas is having the biggest impact on the US energy market right now.
I agree with you about regulations and cuts. The medical care issue is especially frustrating because we spend more than almost any other country, and we get a terrible return on that money in terms of services and health outcomes.
@reinvented2012, The political system thrives on this failure, why would they wanna fix it?
Cutting back on military spending? That’s what you expect of a country that’s been constantly at war ever since it was founded?
Look, it’s not gonna happen, all this shit is the backbone of the nation, unfortunately.
@sandman, Well, it’s not really a safe bet. Just look at how the value of the dollar compared to other currencies has been changing up and down a whole lot. Just like the gold standard, this system gives advantages to some and disadvantages to others.
I’m not denying the great things that have come from global connections. But connection and fusion are very different things. And in order to support another country, resources are taken from the people of the “helpful” nation. Without their consent.
Countries have their own laws, that protect against criminals, the UN doesn’t really add to that.
As for preventing people from doing bad things to each other, that’s a modified truth. It makes it harder for commoners, but effortless for the powerful.
Slavery is not gone, there is lots of it in many places, it’s illegal but that doesn’t mean it isn’t there.
And, none of this really has anything to do with the subject of the falling dollar.
@viner-cent, “(their new leader is even worse in the freedom of speech issues then the last ones)”
If they will ever be #1, being tyrannical or dictatorial is an important factor for the currency to succeed. To keep people working, a factory nation.
@reinvented2012, ‘mericunts don’t care, we spend the most on nicest and newest toys to play with. If we really wanted to fix this, it should’ve happened a long time a go. So if we’re called to desperate times, we can just pick a fight with anyone.
@reinvented2012, 1. The dollar is probably not going anywhere anytime soon. Yeah, this whole government shutdown mess was not good, but there is not a better alternative and there won’t be. Reducing the US to a 3rd world country? What does that even mean?
The United States debt is not an apocalyptic scenario like many in the media will have you believe. The majority of it is owned by the private sector in the US not by China as is commonly stated. Guess how much American debt china holds? Less than $1.3 trillion, which is less than 10% of the total debt. Yes, our unfunded liabilities look bad but they can and will be fixed.
I don’t know how fracking got into this conversation, but the domestic energy sector almost single handedly pulled the US out of the recession. You may not like it, but it is a necessary evil for the time being. If we just said fuck all of our domestic energy, we would just be importing it from Canada, Scandinavia, and the Middle East at a much higher price and the money would be leaving the US economy.
@sandman, So as we generally agree, we just need some real reform. This has strayed from the OP but I dont care, thats what thinking does. What are the chances of real reform in the US in terms of those large spending chunks? Do you think a major party leader will ever really try or are they too scared to tell the American people they are going to have to help those in need because the government cannot until they get out of debt. I personally would like to see a libertarian get into office soon since they seem to expose lots of truths and have a different outlook on solving issues than both Democrats and republicans. Libertarian party seems to hold positive values of both sides, makes me wonder why they’re so unpopular.
@manimal, I think all we need is someone in power that will not be controlled by the conglomerate and someone that listens to the people. I get that we are a militarized country but it doesnt have to be that way, it only takes one person to change that.
@motorik, you are obviously generalizing mericunts, and I know they are out there, I see it everyday. I also think that more people are waking up and soon when we become the majority, the assholes of the nation will not have control of the others. Hoping this happens before we have to deal with the “desperate times” which obviously involves mass hunger, violence and disease.
@jamesjohnson, Well reducing the US to a third world country would mean having nationwide hunger, violence, disease and death. Lack of affordable food, lack of practicing medical staff and other professionals because our money would be nearly worthless. You also say $1.3 trillion like its nothing, its still a lot of money even if its only 10% of our debt. In regards to fracking, but I am not one to choose the lesser of 2 evils, because as I am sure you have heard, that means youre still choosing evil. Maybe its time we started thinking more open minded about how to reduce the destruction of the planet, although that goes against what economics would say to do.
“What are the chances of real reform in the US in terms of those large spending chunks? ”
Unfortunately, I think we’ll just muddle through. All congressmen have huge incentives to add pork to the bills. Tax reform would wipe out a lot of special interest group benefits, so that’s a no-go. And there’s a lot of pushback on reforming social services. I think raising the social security retirement age might pass (grandfather in the current retirees of course.)
If I had to choose, I’d take a libertarian over a Tea Party nut. The Tea Party seems racist to me, and their platform is based on outright lies about the Constitution and the level of religiosity of the founding fathers. At least libertarians have a cogent theory about how to run a (small) government, and they suggest cutting the military as much as social services.
The gerrymandered House congressional districts mean a party is guaranteed to win a district, so then primary candidates compete to be more extreme in their platform. Then you get a lot of unqualified nuts in the House. That’s not going to change soon, unfortunately.
Personally, I like the idea of a single payer national health service. It works very well in most wealthy nations in terms of costs and effectiveness. I also like federal funding for scientific research, education, infrastructure, and the arts. It breaks my heart to see the tiny amount of research and art funding slashed when all of that investment in the future costs the same as one (delayed, over budget, and do we even need manned fighter jets any more?) fighter jet.
We desperately need immigration reform. And that might actually pass. We train the brightest minds in the world in our universities, and just when they want to start innovative businesses here, we kick them out. Also, tech firms are desperate to scoop up the best and brightest from other countries, but can’t get visas for them. Immigrants shift the demographics towards young and healthy while several other countries (China, Japan) will be growing older (fewer workers, more dependents.)
My hope is a return to the Clinton years: a strong economy made it possible to be a fiscally conservative Democrat, with reform (but not outright slashing) of social services, maintaining a necessary military, and still having a budget surplus. How to get to a strong economy, though… There’s the question up for debate!
sounds like one world currency talk bc the euro isnt a National currency either, its an international currency, no-one-country-owns-the-euro,
^what do you think of this^, do you think money separating from a National currency into an international one would make things more fair and interconnected?
i’m not a money or economic guy, so i really don’t know the impact
|| If Euro becomes the standard, that could be a disaster, because it’s very unstable. I really hope Euro won’t spread more than it already has.||
do you think this will remain true as more and more countries switch over to the Euro? i guess, to re-phrase, could the current instability be caused by competing with other currencies?
@tine, I am not sure what that would do. But I dont see it harming anything or making things worse than they are. It would make it much easier for the people that travel thats for sure.
@sandman, The fact that there is so much to consider is mind boggling. I feel whoever makes it into office next needs to sit back and say “If we were at square 1, day 1, throw all laws out the window, forget about all the lobbysits and special interested groups. What do we put in place to keep this a world economy sustainable for so far into the future we cannot fathom a time more distant.” We know that there are sustainable ways of generating energy, producing food etc. Its all the bullshit loopholes, red tape and shit that has fucked us. We need to essentially start at 0 without having to actually go into a depression or whatever. I dont know if that is something anyone is capable or brave enough to do but its a must.